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Title:

Incorporating Spatial Dynamics and Temporal Dependency in Land Use Change Models

Accession Number:

01372986

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

This paper formulates an empirical discrete land-use model within a spatially explicit economic structural framework for land-use change decisions. The underlying framework goes beyond mechanistic fitting models for the spatial process of land use change to more closely link landowner decision behavior to land use patterns. At the same time, the paper explicitly considers spatial “spillover” effects in the decisions of land-owners of proximately located parcels as well as heterogeneity in the decision-making process of different land owners. Time-varying random effects are also considered to capture the effects of time-varying unobserved factors. The model is estimated using Bhat’s (2011) maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) inference approach. The empirical analysis is undertaken using the City of Austin parcel-level land use database for multiple years (1995, 2000, 2003, 2006). The estimation results indicate that proximity to highways and other roadways, distance from flood plains, parcel location in the context of existing development, and distance from schools are all important determinants of land-use. As importantly, the results provide very strong evidence of temporal dependency and spatial dynamics in land-use decisions. There is also a suggestion that major highways may not only physically partition regions, but may also act as social barriers for didactic interactions among individuals.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40(2) Integrated Transportation and Land Use Modeling

Monograph Accession #:

01362476

Report/Paper Numbers:

12-3517

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Sidharthan, Raghuprasad
Bhat, Chandra R

ORCID 0000-0002-0715-8121

Pagination:

21p

Publication Date:

2012

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2012-1-22 to 2012-1-26
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References; Tables

Uncontrolled Terms:

Proximity; Spillover; Temporal dependency

Geographic Terms:

Austin (Texas)

Subject Areas:

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2012 Paper #12-3517

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Feb 8 2012 5:17PM