01371049

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2303-10

http://scholar.google.com...lman&publication_year=2012

Budget constraints and competing opportunities demand thoughtful evaluation of projects before investment. Significant uncertainty surrounds travel choices, demographic futures, project costs, and model parameters. The impact of this uncertainty was explored with the use of hundreds of sensitivity test runs conducted across 28 random parameter sets to evaluate highway capacity expansion and toll project scenarios in Austin, Texas. The effects of different parameter sets on project benefit–cost ratios, crash counts, emissions, traffic volumes, and tolling revenues were examined in detail. Linear regression results showed that link capacity, link performance parameters, and their covariation were key to the results, followed by the elasticity of demand, trip growth rates, and values of travel time.

01470174

12-1795

English

pp 89–98

2012

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309263023

Print

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Benefit cost analysis; Evaluation; Forecasting; Highway capacity; Linear regression analysis; Sensitivity analysis; Toll roads; Uncertainty

Expansion projects; Highway expansion; Project evaluation; Project selection

Austin (Texas)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I21: Planning of Transport Infrastructure; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 8 2012 5:05PM

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