01371055

Component

The air quality levels in various regions around the world remain a large public concern. Transportation is known to be a major contributor to reduced air quality levels. Until now, the modeling of the regional impact of transportation on air quality has been based on the assumption of determinism. On the other hand, it is well recognized that transportation systems are subject to both demand and supply uncertainties. In this paper, the authors relax the assumption of determinism and allow for capacity and link flow uncertainty. The authors introduce a probability measure – coined the conformity probability – to capture the full probabilistic behavior of vehicular emissions. Moreover, stochastic dependencies are modeled using copulas, generalizing other commonly used dependence modeling techniques in the transportation network modeling arena. In a case study the authors demonstrate that such a generalization is critical as the ranking of capacity expansion projects to improve air quality is shown to be dependent on the hypothesized dependence structure.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB30 Transportation Network Modeling

01362476

12-1230

English

16p

2012

Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Air quality management; Environmental impacts; Exhaust gases; Stochastic processes; Vehicles

Copula-based models

Environment; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I15: Environment

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2012 Paper #12-1230

TRIS, TRB

Feb 8 2012 5:00PM