01504349

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/2011/RSS/2/Chiou,Y-C.pdf

This study simultaneously models crash severity of both parties in two-vehicle accidents at signalized intersections in Taipei City, Taiwan, using a novel bivariate generalized ordered probit (BGOP) model. Estimation results show that the BGOP model performs better than the conventional bivariate ordered probit (BOP) model in goodness-of-fit indices and prediction accuracy, and provides a better understanding of factors contributing to different severity levels. According to estimated parameters in latent propensity functions and elasticity effects, several key risk factors are identified—driver type (age >65), vehicle type (motorcycle), violation type (alcohol use), intersection type (three leg and multiple leg), collision type (rear ended), and lighting conditions (night and night without illumination). Corresponding countermeasures for these risk factors are proposed.

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01501394

English

19p

2011

3rd International Conference on Road Safety and Simulation

Digital/other

References; Tables

Countermeasures; Crash severity; Drivers; Goodness of fit; Motorcycle crashes; Probits; Signalized intersections

Taipei City, Taiwan

Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I80: Accident Studies

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 10 2014 12:47PM