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Title:

Categorical Modeling to Evaluate Road Safety at the Planning Level
Cover of Categorical Modeling to Evaluate Road Safety at the Planning Level

Accession Number:

01504456

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

The most efficient strategy to ensure long term road network safety is to integrate road safety analysis into the planning process of a network or a corridor. Safety planning decision-support tool outcomes should be reliable and realistic, taking into account the main characteristics of this particular level, which is characterized by scant and generalized data. However, the tools developed and presented in previous studies are based on models with a quantitative response, usually the number of accidents, which may not be appropriate for this level. In order to develop a more suitable tool while maintaining a measure assessment character, this work presents a qualitative response model whose outcome is the risk of occurring three degrees of hazards: low, medium and high. In the present study, an ordered probit model was applied to an urban road network using Porto (Portugal) data covering a 5-year period. Hazard categories were defined using accident frequency to reflect a measure of the safety of the road network studied. The developed model provides a safety risk analysis of a road network or a corridor for a future period, considering road data that are easy to gather or estimate at the planning level, such as land use, traffic volume, etc. This methodology was applied to various segment scenarios to provide an evaluation of changing road features. Furthermore, a comparison between qualitative and quantitative model outcomes is presented, showing the former as an appropriate model that enables a risk analysis approach.

Supplemental Notes:

Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

Monograph Accession #:

01501394

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Ferreira, Sara
Couto, António

Pagination:

15p

Publication Date:

2011

Conference:

3rd International Conference on Road Safety and Simulation

Location: Indianapolis Indiana, United States
Date: 2011-9-14 to 2011-9-16
Sponsors: Purdue University; Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Maps; References; Tables

Geographic Terms:

Porto (Portugal)

Subject Areas:

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I80: Accident Studies

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Jan 9 2014 4:34PM