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Title:

Factor Complexity of Accident Occurrence: An Empirical Demonstration Using Boosted Regression Trees
Cover of Factor Complexity of Accident Occurrence: An Empirical Demonstration Using Boosted Regression Trees

Accession Number:

01504276

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

Factor complexity is regarded as a typical characteristic of traffic accidents. This paper proposes a novel method, named boosted regression trees (BRTs), which is particularly appropriate for investigating complicated and nonlinear relationships in high-variance traffic accident data. The Taiwan 2004–2005 single-motorcycle accident data are adopted to demonstrate the usefulness of BRTs. Traditional logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) models are also developed to compare their estimation results and predictive performance. Both the in-sample cross-validation and out-of-sample validation results show that the increase of tree complexity provided better but declining improvement on the predictive performance, indicating a limited factor complexity of single motorcycle accidents. While a certain portion of fatal accidents can be explained by the main effects of crucial variables including geographical, time, and socio-demographic factors, the relatively unique fatal accidents are better approximated by interactive terms, especially the combinations of behaviorial factors. The BRTs models generally provide better transferability than logistic and CART models. The implications of analysis results for devising safety policies are also provided.

Supplemental Notes:

Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

Monograph Accession #:

01501394

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Chung, Yi-Shih

Pagination:

23p

Publication Date:

2011

Conference:

3rd International Conference on Road Safety and Simulation

Location: Indianapolis Indiana, United States
Date: 2011-9-14 to 2011-9-16
Sponsors: Purdue University; Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References; Tables

Subject Areas:

Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I80: Accident Studies

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Jan 9 2014 3:40PM