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Title:

Evaluation of Influence of Crash Underreporting on Hot-Spot Identification

Accession Number:

01333471

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

Hot spot identification (HSID) plays a significant role in improving the safety of a road network. Numerous hot spot identification methods have been developed and proposed in the past. Most of them rely heavily on official crash statistics to conduct HSID. Crash underreporting, along with many other issues, has long been recognized as a threat to the accuracy and completeness of historical traffic crash records. As a natural continuation of a previous study, the paper intends to evaluate the exact influence underreported crashes might have on HSID. To conduct the evaluation, five groups of data gathered from Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) over the course of three years are adjusted to account for fifteen different levels of underreporting. Three identification methods are utilized: simple ranking (SR), empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB). Various cutoff levels to establish hotspots are explored. Finally, two evaluation criteria are compared across HSID methods. The results illustrate that the identification bias due to crash underreporting may be significant. Comparatively speaking, the crash underreporting has the largest influence on the FB method, and has the least influence on the SR method. Additionally, the impact appears to be positively related with the percentage of the underreported property damage only PDO crashes, but inversely related with the percentage of the underreported injury crashes. This is significant because it establishes that although PDO crashes are seen as the least severe, they have the most significant influence on hot spot identification.

Monograph Accession #:

01329018

Report/Paper Numbers:

11-4119

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Troung, Aaron
Giovanni, Bryden
Cheng, Wen
Jia, Xudong
Washington, Simon

Pagination:

26p

Publication Date:

2011

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2011-1-23 to 2011-1-27
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

DVD

Features:

Figures (1) ; References (47) ; Tables (8)

Uncontrolled Terms:

Property damage; Underreporting

Geographic Terms:

Arizona

Subject Areas:

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2011 Paper #11-4119

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Feb 17 2011 6:46PM