01333233

Component

This paper demonstrates an innovative reliability analysis approach for prediction of asphalt rutting performance. In this approach, reliability can be evaluated by considering the variability in laboratory test results, layer thicknesses and stiffnesses, and measured in-situ performance. The effects of input design parameters variability on predicted performance were determined using the calculated distributions of calibration coefficients. To assess the contribution of each input parameter’s variability to variability of calculated calibration coefficients, various cases were created by including and excluding the variability in these parameters in the calibration process. This permitted comparison of calculated variability considering different sources of variability, with measured performance variability. These distributions were also used for rutting performance prediction and reliability evaluation of highway sections. In this way, rut depths for different reliability levels can be predicted without performing computationally intensive calculations within the design software. The results indicated that distributions of calibration coefficients calculated by using measured rut depths (performance variability) are very similar to calibration coefficient distributions calculated by using thickness and stiffness (construction) variability. This result suggests that variability in performance can be effectively predicted by using the variability in thickness and stiffness for heavy vehicle simulator (HVS) test sections because variability in thickness and stiffness were found to be the major factors that control the variability in measured rut depths. The effect of laboratory test results variability on calibration coefficient distributions was found to be negligible when compared to the effects of stiffness and thickness variability. Although the reliability approach proposed in this study was developed using the results of a specific laboratory test and rutting model, the general procedure can be applied to any pavement design software for any type of distress.

01329018

11-2735

English

22p

2011

Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting

DVD

Figures (4) ; References (22) ; Tables (1)

Calibration; Monte Carlo method; Pavement distress; Pavement performance; Rutting; Stiffness; Thickness

Bootstrapping; Reliability analysis

Highways; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2011 Paper #11-2735

TRIS, TRB

Feb 17 2011 6:16PM