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Title:

Does Information on Weather Affect the Performance of Short-term Traffic Forecasting Models?

Accession Number:

01334539

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

Although weather, traffic mix and speed variability across lanes are considered significant determinants of traffic flow characteristics on freeways, they have not been incorporated into short-term traffic forecasting models. The authors evaluate the effect of weather and traffic mix on the predictability of traffic speed using several Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average( ARIMA) models. Results indicate that including exogenous variables in the forecasting models only marginally improves their prediction performance, while modeling improvements such as Vector and Bayesian estimation improves the models significantly.

Monograph Accession #:

01329018

Report/Paper Numbers:

11-1766

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Tsirigotis, Lykourgos
Vlahogianni, Eleni I
Karlaftis, Matthew G

Pagination:

17p

Publication Date:

2011

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2011-1-23 to 2011-1-27
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

DVD

Features:

Figures; Maps; References; Tables (9)

Identifier Terms:

ARIMAX (Computer model)

Subject Areas:

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2011 Paper #11-1766

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Feb 17 2011 5:55PM