01340174

Component

Urban passenger trip mode split is the result of interrelated and mutually independent factors, such as city scale, urban form, economic level, trip distance and travel time. Usually, researchers analyze the factors qualitatively and solely but seldom apply them into trip mode split. In order to analyze the formation of traffic structure, it is necessary to make a comprehensive analysis of the mechanism of these factors and obtain the basic causal relationship of them. Based on this, by using the structure model in system engineering, this study firstly clarifies the logical relationship of different factors such as urban form, natural condition, city scale, trip distance, trip purpose. Then, the existing traffic survey data of several cities is used to establish the mathematical relationship of various factors of the structure model. Finally, the mode split prediction method is proposed based on the structure model of influencing factors. The case study result of six cities shows small bias, indicating that this method is of great practical value. Although it is difficult to apply this methodology in detailed traffic demand forecast which uses more complex models and iterative, feedback or equilibrium techniques, it has merit as a sketch planning tool, because policy makers can use it to discover the trip structure feature and grasp the direction of transportation development policy.

01329018

11-1671

English

20p

2011

Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting

DVD

Figures (5) ; References (26) ; Tables (4)

Modal split; Policy making; Sketch planning; Traffic estimation; Traffic forecasting; Travel demand; Travel time; Trip length; Trip purpose

Urban form

China

Highways; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2011 Paper #11-1671

TRIS, TRB

Feb 17 2011 5:53PM