01340138

Component

Using the 1997/98 New York Metropolitan Transportation Council household survey and United States Census, the authors estimate an instrumental variable probit model to test the impact of contextual and endogenous social network effects on auto ownership. The authors find that the probability of car ownership is affected by behavior of socio-economic peers and physical neighbors. The authors show that contextual effects can only be identified when the endogenous effect is included. Ceteris parabus, households in poorer neighborhoods are more likely to own vehicles, households in neighborhoods with higher proportions of people with graduate degrees are less likely to own vehicles. The finding suggests car ownership is a status symbol for poorer households and non-car ownership is a status symbol for people with post baccalaureate education. The results are important in two policy contexts: as auto ownership is a precursor to trip generation and mode choice, auto ownership estimation is important to effective travel forecasting; as vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is tied to auto ownership, VMT reduction strategies, as a way to improve air quality, reduce congestion and reduce greenhouse gas emissions may be tied to auto ownership reduction strategies. In either case, correct modeling of auto ownership will lead to more effective policy outcomes.

01329018

11-0506

English

18p

2011

Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting

DVD

References (32) ; Tables (1)

Automobile ownership; Environmental impacts; Greenhouse gases; Mode choice; Policy making; Socioeconomic factors; Traffic congestion; Traffic forecasting; Trip generation; Vehicle miles of travel

Emissions reduction; Endogenous variables

New York Metropolitan Area

Environment; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2011 Paper #11-0506

TRIS, TRB

Feb 17 2011 5:28PM