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Title:

Analytical Tool for Calculating Transition Probabilities for Pavement Performance Prediction

Accession Number:

01334150

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

The algorithms used for simulating pavement deterioration in stochastic models require a transition probability matrix that defines defect progression. A method for the derivation of transition probability matrices utilising deterministic deterioration models, coupled with an estimate of scatter or confidence in the model, is described. This has been taken forward and encapsulated in an analytical tool, called the transition matrix calculator, to assist the engineer in the formulation of transition probability matrices. The optimisation process consists of obtaining the transition probabilities that minimise the difference between the condition distributions obtained from the deterministic model over the analysis period, and those obtained from the transition probability matrix itself. The transition matrix calculator is demonstrated, producing a transition probability matrix for the prediction of the Riding Comfort Index. The resulting ‘goodness of fit’ is visually assessed by comparing the deterioration trend line for the original deterministic model with that obtained from the resultant transition probability matrix, as represented by the average of the yearly distributions. In addition, the yearly distributions of condition are also compared to assess the success or otherwise of the optimisation process in replicating the deterioration patterns of the original deterministic model. However, it is important to note that regardless of the accuracy of the transition matrix calculator in its function, the predictive power of the resulting transition probability matrix depends solely on the accuracy of the original inputs, i.e. the deterministic model and its associated scatter.

Monograph Accession #:

01329018

Report/Paper Numbers:

11-0306

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Costello, Seosamh Benedict
Ortiz-Garcia, Jose J
Snaith, Martin S

Pagination:

13p

Publication Date:

2011

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2011-1-23 to 2011-1-27
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

DVD

Features:

Figures (5) ; References (11)

Subject Areas:

Highways; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2011 Paper #11-0306

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Feb 17 2011 5:23PM