01127337

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2112-17

http://scholar.google.com...inga&publication_year=2009

Transportation modeling frameworks assume that travelers are economically rational; that is, they choose the lowest-cost alternative to complete a desired trip. The reliability of travel time is of critical importance to travelers. The ability to quantify reliability allows planners to estimate more accurately how system performance influences local travel behavior and to evaluate more appropriately potential investments in the transportation system infrastructure. This paper presents a methodology that makes use of automatic vehicle location data from the regional municipality of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, to estimate the reliability of transit service. On the basis of these data, the impacts of unreliable service on generalized transit user costs are quantified by use of a simulation model of bus arrivals and passengers’ desired arrival times. It is shown that the increasing reliability of arrivals at a station can decrease transit users’ generalized costs significantly and by as much as 15% in a reasonably reliable network. It is further posited that the inclusion of uncertainty in the calculation of generalized costs may provide better estimates of mode splits in travel forecasting models. A description of future applications of the model concludes the paper.

01146356

09-3685

English

pp 136-141

2009

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309142618

Print

Figures (5) ; Maps (1) ; References (9) ; Tables (1)

Arrivals and departures; Automatic vehicle location; Bus transit; Simulation; Travel behavior; Travel time

Service reliability; User costs

Waterloo (Canada)

Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 30 2009 8:06PM

• Application of Pedestrian Intersection Safety Index in Planning Access to New Rail Stations
• Business Model for Commingled Operations of Freight and Non-FRA-Compliant Passenger Rail Services
• Calculation of Benefits of Advanced Integrated Rail Service: Application of Intelligent Transportation Systems to the Developing City of Lima, Peru
• Cluster-Based Hierarchical Model for Urban Transit Hub Location Planning: Formulation, Solution, and Case Study
• Constructing a Transit Origin–Destination Table Using the Uncertainty Maximization Concept
• Control of Public Transportation Operations to Improve Reliability: Theory and Practice
• Line Length Versus Operational Reliability: Network Design Dilemma in Urban Public Transportation
• Metrorail Trends and Markets: Synopsis of Recent Ridership Growth
• Network Analysis of World Subway Systems Using Updated Graph Theory
• Passenger Choice Models for Analysis of Impacts of Real-Time Bus Information on Crowdedness
• Passenger Environment Survey: Representing the Customer Perspective in Quality Control
• Regional Rail: Scheduling for Connections
• Study on Service-Level Classification of Platforms in Beijing Urban Rail Transit
• Transfer Scheduling and Control to Reduce Passenger Waiting Time
• Use of Entry-Only Automatic Fare Collection Data to Estimate Linked Transit Trips in New York City
• Using a Public Education Campaign to Improve Driver Compliance with Streetcar Transit Lanes