01127286

Component

Megaprojects in the United States have a legacy of cost overruns. The problems with these overruns start with the cost estimation process before projects begin. Studies have shown that early cost estimations reflect best-case scenarios rather than realistic expectations. The objectives of this research were to determine how costs are presented and updated in environmental impact statements and to provide a framework for selecting cost estimation techniques in consideration of estimating techniques used nationally for transportation projects. Cost estimation methods were analyzed from the documents of seventy projects, including draft environmental impact statements, final environmental impact statements, and records of decision. Interviews with proposing agencies and federal employees involved in the projects provided additional context. Documents were found to have limited disclosure of costs, and eleven percent of the project documents never mentioned cost. Projects that did account for costs reflected an average of 10.75 percent increase in cost between the draft and final environmental impact statements; however, more typically, project costs were not updated through the environmental review process. As a first step, cost estimation needs to become a standard input to environmental review. It was found that the unit costs/historical costs method is currently used most widely.

01120148

09-3642

English

20p

2009

Transportation Research Board 88th Annual Meeting

DVD

Figures (2) ; References; Tables (3)

Cost estimating; Decision making; Environmental impact statements; Environmental impacts; Ground transportation; Megaprojects; Systems analysis; Transportation planning

Environment; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I20: Design and Planning of Transport Infrastructure

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2009 Paper #09-3642

TRIS, TRB

Jan 30 2009 8:03PM