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Title:

Accident Prediction Models for Evaluation of Safety Performance on Two-Lane Rural Highways

Accession Number:

01124193

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

Transportation Research Board Business Office

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Abstract:

At a European level, road accident fatalities on “two-lane rural roads” constitute about 60% of the total number of fatalities caused by road accidents. This paper presents a comprehensive procedure to define an Accident Prediction Model (APM) for two lane road sections based on road features related to the safety performance of the stretch. Firstly, significant variables related to the exposure, geometry, consistency and context factors were identified for the segmentation of highways into homogeneous sections. All the basic data were obtained from a low cost surveys purposely set up. In particular, differential cinematic Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys were used to define the horizontal alignment and Road Safety Inspections (RSIs) were carried out in order to quantify the other road characteristics related to safety. The latter part of the paper focuses on the calibration of APMs able to estimate the expected number of accidents on homogeneous sections of different lengths that can be characterized by constant values of the explanatory variables previously defined. Several APMs were calibrated using the Generalized Linear Model approach (GLIM). Finally, considering the statistical significance of the parameters related to exposure, geometry, consistency and context factors, and the model’s goodness of fit measures, 19 models were ranked and three APMs were selected as best models. The first one is a base model, function of length and traffic only, which can be used along with an Empirical Bayesian calculation to conduct network screening analysis. The other two models represent the best statistical fit with significant variables related to exposure, geometry, consistency and context factors.

Monograph Accession #:

01120148

Report/Paper Numbers:

09-1937

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Cafiso, Salvatore
Di Graziano, Alessandro
Di Silvestro, Giacomo
La Cava, Grazia

Pagination:

20p

Publication Date:

2009

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 88th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2009-1-11 to 2009-1-15
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

DVD

Features:

Figures (4) ; References (27) ; Tables (4)

Subject Areas:

Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2009 Paper #09-1937

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Jan 30 2009 6:13PM