01128674

Component

Route choice behavior is often modeled as single or multiple choice decision among alternative routes, given origins and destinations, using discrete choice models. For more complex problems such as pedestrian trajectories in shopping streets, such modeling approach may not be appropriate because pedestrian behavior is often explorative, without clear destinations. Pedestrian route choice behavior therefore is endogenous, emerging from the interaction between several other decisions than explicit route choice. Such complexity also questions the validity of using rational choice models as these models already unrealistically assume unlimited cognitive and computation abilities of the decision maker. Actually, people are bounded rational and use simplifying decision heuristics to reduce decision complexity. This paper addresses these two problems in route choice modeling in the context of pedestrian research. The authors propose a process model which includes four major decisions, go-home, direction choice, rest, and store patronage, which jointly determine route choice behavior. The authors propose the Heterogeneous Heuristic Model which can model coexistence of heuristics applied in a decision and explain the choice of heuristics considering mental effort, risk perception, and expected outcome under decision uncertainty. The authors estimate the four models using pedestrian shopping diary data collected in a shopping street in Shanghai, China. The models also predict the probabilities of heuristic usage and information search patterns. Multi-agent simulations demonstrate good fit between simulated aggregate pedestrian.

01120148

09-1762

English

18p

2009

Transportation Research Board 88th Annual Meeting

DVD

Figures (422) ; References (22) ; Tables (1)

Decision making; Heterogeneity; Origin and destination; Pedestrian movement; Pedestrian traffic; Risk analysis; Route choice; Shopping facilities; Travel behavior; Travel surveys; Uncertainty

Discrete choice models; Pedestrian trajectories

Shanghai (China)

Highways; Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2009 Paper #09-1762

TRIS, TRB

Jan 30 2009 6:01PM