01128634

Component

Understanding the dynamics of the annual vehicle miles of travel (AVMT) and forecasting the future AVMT growth rates for the Washington State highways are crucial for estimating congestion, air quality, and gas tax revenues, and planning for the transportation infrastructure investment. Sixteen model formulations were proposed for estimating the passenger and heavy truck AVMT on each functional class. In addition to the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions and the Prais-Winston transformations of the OLS regressions, robust regression routines - Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares (IRWLS) and Least Absolute Value (LAV) regression - were used to resist the pull of outliers. Elasticity based models and regression models were used to forecast the passenger and heavy truck AVMT on each functional class. Roadway miles, motor gasoline prices, employment, population, personal income, taxable retail sales, gross state products for different sectors, and historical container volumes for the Port of Tacoma and Port of Seattle were incorporated into the models as the primary determinates of the travel demand in Washington State.

01120148

09-1241

English

28p

2009

Transportation Research Board 88th Annual Meeting

DVD

References (15) ; Tables (5)

Air quality; Container traffic; Freight traffic; Heavy duty trucks; Least squares method; Taxation; Traffic congestion; Traffic forecasting; Travel surveys; Vehicle miles of travel

Annual mileage

Seattle (Washington); Tacoma (Washington); Washington (State)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2009 Paper #09-1241

TRIS, TRB

Jan 30 2009 5:27PM