01128735

Component

This research evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-completed projects in Minnesota and identifies the factors influencing the inaccuracy in forecasts. The forecast traffic data for this study is drawn from Environmental Impact Statements (EIS), Transportation Analysis Reports (TAR) and other forecast reports produced by the Minnesota Department of Transportation (Mn/DOT) with a horizon forecast year of 2010 or earlier. The actual traffic data is compiled from the database of traffic counts maintained by the Office of Traffic Forecasting & Analysis section at Mn/DOT. Based on recent research on forecast accuracy, the (in)accuracy of traffic forecasts is estimated as a ratio of the forecast traffic to the actual traffic. The estimation of forecast (in)accuracy also involves a comparison of the socioeconomic and demographic assumptions, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went into generating the traffic forecasts against actual conditions. The analysis indicates a general trend of underestimation in roadway traffic forecasts with factors such as highway type, functional classification, direction playing an influencing role. Roadways with higher volumes and higher functional classifications such as freeways are subject to underestimation compared to lower volume roadways/functional classifications. The comparison of demographic forecasts shows a trend of overestimation while the comparison of travel behavior characteristics indicates a lack of incorporation of fundamental shifts and societal changes.

01120148

09-0949

English

33p

2009

Transportation Research Board 88th Annual Meeting

DVD

Figures (6) ; References; Tables (6)

Accuracy; Demographics; Environmental impact statements; Socioeconomic factors; Systems analysis; Traffic counts; Traffic data; Traffic estimation; Traffic forecasting; Travel behavior

Post construction reviews

Minnesota

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2009 Paper #09-0949

TRIS, TRB

Jan 30 2009 5:12PM