01126867

Component

The task of selecting technologies for the next generation of vehicles is examined using modern portfolio theory. A quadratic program is developed, with the objective of minimizing expected financial cost. Constraints limit greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the variance of the cost. A case study is performed for light-duty passenger vehicles in the United States, drawing emissions and usage data from the EPA MOVES and DOE GREET models, among other sources. Four technologies are considered: conventional gasoline, conventional diesel, grid-independent (non-plug-in) gasoline-electric hybrid, and flex fuel using E85. If fuel prices maintain late May 2008 levels, the gasoline-electric hybrid emerges as the dominant component of the portfolio. With much of the cost uncertainty coming from fuel prices, hybrids exhibit the lowest cost variances of the technologies, making them an arguably conservative investment.

01120148

09-0746

English

20p

2009

Transportation Research Board 88th Annual Meeting

DVD

Figures (4) ; References (31)

Electric vehicles; Exhaust gases; Greenhouse gases; Hybrid vehicles; Plug-in hybrid vehicles; Pollutants; Technological innovations; Vehicle design

Emissions reduction; Flex fuel vehicles; Next generation design

Environment; Highways; Vehicles and Equipment; I15: Environment

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2009 Paper #09-0746

TRIS, TRB

Jan 30 2009 4:59PM