01123256

Component

This paper describes the use of several recently developed community-based, macro-level collision prediction models (CPMs) and model-use guidelines in a CPM transferability case study between spatial-temporal regions. The objective was to test the model-use guidelines in an application that involved transferring CPMs developed using 1996 data for the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD), for use in the Central Okanagan Regional District (CORD) using 2003 data. The GVRD and CORD are regions located 400 kilometers apart in the Province of British Columbia, Canada. The case study was carried out in two parts. First, CPMs were developed ?from scratch? using 2003 data for the City of Kelowna following recommended community-based, macro-level collision prediction model development guidelines. Second, existing CPMs were transferred from the GVRD to the CORD, using the recommended transferability guidelines. An analysis of the results revealed that macro-level CPM transferability was possible and no more complicated than micro-level CPM transferability. To facilitate the development of reliable community-based, macro-level collision prediction models, it is recommended that CPMs be transferred rather than developed from scratch whenever and wherever communities lack sufficient data of adequate quality.

01120148

09-0610

English

21p

2009

Transportation Research Board 88th Annual Meeting

DVD

References (14) ; Tables (3)

Guidelines; Safety; Traffic data; Traffic models; Traffic safety

Crash prediction models; Macro-level; Time space constraints

British Columbia; Vancouver (Canada)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; I83: Accidents and the Human Factor

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2009 Paper #09-0610

TRIS, TRB

Jan 30 2009 4:51PM