01114238

Component

http://www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/160401.aspx

The Swiss Bridge Management System (KUBA) provides decision support in planning preservation interventions. In order to compare preservation strategies, the system relies on forecasts about the future development of a structural element’s condition state. In KUBA, the deterioration of a structural element is modeled by a discrete Markov chain. Estimating the transition probabilities of such a discrete Markov chain is rather straightforward when observational data are available for every period of the chain. Although bridges in Switzerland should ideally be inspected every 5 years, inspection intervals are irregular in practice, varying between 3 and 10 years. To overcome the resulting missing data problem, an Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to estimate the transition probabilities. Further, the comparison of preservation strategies requires information about the effectiveness of preservation interventions. KUBA takes intervention effectiveness into account as the probability that a structural element will be in a certain condition after the intervention has been carried out. If historical data are available for the elements’ condition states immediately before as well as immediately after the preservation interventions, then estimating these probabilities is straightforward. However, an element’s condition is usually only known at the oldest inspection before the intervention, and the youngest inspection afterwards. Therefore, starting from those two inspections, the element’s expected condition state immediately before and immediately after the intervention is computed with its deterioration Markov matrix, in order to estimate the expected intervention effectiveness. Finally, using historical data on damage and intervention extents, a piecewise regression approach is employed to estimate the relation between damage and preservation intervention extents. The paper also presents some illustrative computational results to underline the practical applicability of the methods.

01114213

IBSMC08-007

English

pp 90-104

2008-10

Transportation Research Circular

Tenth International Conference on Bridge and Structure Management

Web

Figures (2) ; References (4) ; Tables (2)

Algorithms; Bridge management systems; Decision support systems; Deterioration; Markov chains

Bridge preservation; Missing data; Transition probabilities

Switzerland

Bridges and other structures; Design; Highways; I24: Design of Bridges and Retaining Walls

TRIS, TRB

Oct 30 2008 9:59AM

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