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Title:

Accessibility-Based Approach to Travel Demand Forecasting: New Alternative to Four-Step and Activity-Based Methods

Accession Number:

01099321

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

Transportation Research Board Business Office

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Abstract:

An accessibility-based model is now being developed for the Knoxville (TN) Transportation Planning Organization, based on the success of innovations in and research related to the development of a model for the Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission. These accessibility-based models represent a new framework and model design which is distinct from both traditional four-step trip-based models and activity-based simulation models. The approach is trip-based and produces deterministic forecasts, like a traditional model. However, it uses a disaggregate synthetic population, represents time choices in a pseudo-continuous and behaviorally sensitive manner and incorporates some simultaneity of considerations, even in choices regarding different trips. Statistically, the approach avoids both the aggregation bias endemic to traditional models as well as the random simulation errors introduced by activity-based models which complicate forecasting and alternatives analyses. Behaviorally, accessibility-based models are able to reflect trip-chaining and other complex behaviors like activity-based models but with far fewer component models and without explicitly representing activities or tours. Hence, they incur computational and development costs more similar to four-step models. Although they cannot offer the full behavioral richness of activity-based models, they present a major improvement over traditional four-step models at only a fraction of the cost of an activity-based application, making them an appealing choice for many agencies with a desire for greater behavioral realism but a limited modeling budget.

Monograph Accession #:

01084478

Report/Paper Numbers:

08-2181

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Bernardin Jr, Vincent Louis

Pagination:

16p

Publication Date:

2008

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 87th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2008-1-13 to 2008-1-17
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

DVD

Features:

Figures (112) ; References (12) ; Tables (1)

Geographic Terms:

Knoxville (Tennessee)

Subject Areas:

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2008 Paper #08-2181

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Jan 29 2008 4:31PM