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Title:

More Gray Hair, But for Whom? Scenario-Based Simulations of Elderly Activity Travel Patterns in 2020

Accession Number:

01099480

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

Transportation Research Board Business Office

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Abstract:

This paper reports the results of a scenario-based simulation study to explore mobility effects of an aging society in the Netherlands. Four accumulative behavioral scenario variants, embedded in an economic and demographic scenario are used to simulate possible future activity-travel patterns, using the Albatross system as the simulator. The variants account for likely differences in activity-travel behavior between elderly today and elderly in the future. Trends ongoing over the last decade in the Netherlands suggest that future elderly need to work longer, change their activity pattern with most growth occurring in the social/leisure activity category, will try to avoid morning peak hours by rescheduling their activities and may introduce more spatial diversity in terms of their residence location. Results show that these behavioral and spatial changes lead to a significant increase in travel demands as well as temporal, spatial and modal shifts in mobility patterns. We discuss possible policy implications of these predictions and evaluate the specific strength of activity-based models for studies of this kind .

Monograph Accession #:

01084478

Report/Paper Numbers:

08-1218

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Arentze, Theo A
Timmermans, Harry J P
Jorritsma, Peter
Olde Kalter, Marie-Jose
Arnout, Schoemaker

Pagination:

15p

Publication Date:

2008

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 87th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2008-1-13 to 2008-1-17
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

DVD

Features:

Figures (2) ; References (22)

Geographic Terms:

Netherlands

Subject Areas:

Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2008 Paper #08-1218

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Jan 29 2008 3:34PM