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Title:

The Nature and Treatment of Complexity, Uncertainty, and Risk in the Planning of Mega Urban Transport Projects

Accession Number:

01044249

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

Transportation Research Board Business Office

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Abstract:

Across the globe mega urban transport projects (MUTPs) are seen as critical catalysts in the process of strategic change, nation-building and urban and regional development. Successes in terms of delivery are now being tempered by mounting concerns over their rising costs, and uncertainty about outcomes and impacts. The Volvo Research and Educational Foundations (VREF) has funded the setting up of a centre of excellence in the study of Mega Urban Transport Projects at University College London, known as the OMEGA Center. This paper describes the early work-in-progress, being an examination of the nature of complexity, uncertainty and risk as they apply to the planning of MUTPs. Research to date emphasizes that such projects are not only very complex physical entities but are often introduced into contexts characterized by highly complex and dynamic economic, institutional and social settings. They typically trigger myriad responses as contextual elements seek to adjust to new circumstances and interactions generate feedback. The authors provides an analytical framework to both gather and sense-make this feedback with a view to identifying both generic and context-specific lessons for future projects. Complexity and chaos theories help explain how project impacts reverberate around the system both in predictable and unpredictable ways. Existing planning methods are discussed, and techniques of ?sense-making? are identified as relevant to the innovative approach to which the OMEGA Center is committed in its ongoing research into MUTPs to establish which criteria should be employed, and when to judge their success.

Monograph Accession #:

01042056

Report/Paper Numbers:

07-3382

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Oades, Richard
Dimitriou, Harry Terence

Pagination:

16p

Publication Date:

2007

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 86th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2007-1-21 to 2007-1-25
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

CD-ROM

Features:

Figures (2) ; References (30) ; Tables (1)

Uncontrolled Terms:

Complexity

Subject Areas:

Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Safety and Human Factors; Society; I10: Economics and Administration

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2007 Paper #07-3382

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Feb 8 2007 8:04PM