01043494

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2011-09

http://scholar.google.com...Rice&publication_year=2007

Recent gasoline price spikes have heightened interest in new technologies to improve vehicle fuel economy. Indeed, policies in the United States and abroad often target new vehicles as a means to improve fuel economy and reduce passenger vehicle emissions. Although fuel economy and emissions performance of new vehicles are easily compared on an individual basis to the extant vehicle stock, information about long-term aggregate effects is much more difficult to obtain. This project addresses this limitation with the development of an interactive tool that allows users to investigate how scenarios of the penetration of new vehicle technologies would affect future fleet fuel consumption and vehicle emissions (CO, HC, NOx, PM, CO2). The attractiveness of this approach is in the transparency of the assumptions, the ease with which input variables can be manipulated, and the incorporation of uncertainty. Users can vary a number of parameter inputs (e.g., growth of the passenger vehicle fleet, the rates of technological diffusion, and future emissions and fuel economy of these technologies) and generate instantaneous forecasts of pollution and fuel consumption compared with 2005 levels, as well as a baseline technology scenario, for the period 2005 to 2020. Currently, the tool runs as an Excel spreadsheet application with 15 variable inputs and output for four criteria pollutants, CO2, and future fuel consumption. This paper describes the motivation for the model, explains its development as a spreadsheet application, and demonstrates its utility with a number of examples. Future work will improve the sophistication of certain default assumptions and upgrade the software from a spreadsheet application to an interactive website.

01083340

English

pp 78-86

2007

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309104371

Print

Figures (7) ; References (12)

Air pollution; Air quality management; Emission control devices; Engine efficiency; Engine performance; Environmental impacts; Exhaust gases; Forecasting; Fuel consumption; Gasoline engines; Spreadsheets; Technological innovations; Uncertainty

Fuel efficient cars; Interactive computing

Energy; Environment; Highways; Vehicles and Equipment; I15: Environment; I90: Vehicles

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 8 2007 7:41PM

• Commercial Bus Emissions and Fuel Use: Idling Versus Urban Circulator
• Current Department of Transportation Environmental Management System Development Efforts: Examples from Construction, Maintenance, Project Development, and Planning
• Developing the Integrated Transportation and Ecological Enhancements for Montana Process: Applying the "Eco-Logical" Approach
• Development of Silt Fence Tieback Design Methodology for Highway Construction Installations
• Deviation from Standard State Noise Wall Policy
• Diesel Truck Idling Emissions: Measurements at PM2.5 Hot Spot
• Estimation of Impact of Electronic Toll Collection on Air Pollution Levels: Estimation Using Microscopic Simulation Model of Large-Scale Transportation Network
• Evaluating Air Quality Benefits of Freeway High-Occupancy Vehicle Lanes in Southern California
• Global and Country Inventory of Road Passenger and Freight Transportation: Fuel Consumption and Emissions of Air Pollutants in Year 2000
• Identifying and Correcting Errors with Odometer Readings from Inspection and Maintenance Data: Rollover Problem for Estimation of Emissions and Technical Change
• Impact of Asphalt Rubber Friction Course Overlays on Tire Wear Emissions and Air Quality Models for Phoenix, Arizona, Airshed
• Incorporating Geophysical Remote Sensing into Transportation Archeological Investigations
• Integrating Vehicle Emission Modeling with Activity-Based Travel Demand Modeling: Case Study of the Greater Toronto, Canada, Area
• Mix Design and Benefit Evaluation of High Solar Reflectance Concrete for Pavements
• Modeling On-Road Particle Number Emissions from a Hybrid Diesel–Electric Bus: Exploratory Econometric Analysis
• Potential for Local "Bring-Sites" to Reduce Householder Recycling Mileage
• Recycling Construction and Demolition Waste for Construction in Kansas City Metropolitan Area, Kansas and Missouri
• Stochastic Model for Estimating Impact of Highway Incidents on Air Pollution and Traffic Delay
• Supplemental Metrics to Communicate Aircraft Noise Effects
• Urban Transport Scenarios in South Asia: Energy and Environmental Impact of Enhanced Public Transport Systems
• Use of Highway Underpasses by Large Mammals and Other Wildlife in Virginia: Factors Influencing Their Effectiveness