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Title:

National Freight Demand Modeling: Bridging the Gap Between Freight Flow Statistics and U.S. Economic Patterns

Accession Number:

01042619

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

Transportation Research Board Business Office

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Abstract:

This paper describes a development of national freight demand models for 27 industry sectors covered by the 2002 Commodity Flow Survey. It postulates that the national freight demands are consistent with U.S. business patterns. Furthermore, the study hypothesizes that the flow of goods, which make up the national production processes of industries, is coherent with the information described in the 2002 Annual Input-Output Accounts developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The model estimation framework hinges largely on the assumption that a relatively simple relationship exists between freight production/consumption and business patterns for each industry defined by the three-digit North American Industry Classification System industry codes (NAICS). The national freight demand model for each selected industry sector consists of two models; a freight generation model and a freight attraction model. Thus, a total of 54 simple regression models were estimated under this study. Preliminary results indicated promising freight generation and freight attraction models. Among all models, only four of them had a R2 value lower than 0.70. With additional modeling efforts, these freight demand models could be enhanced to allow transportation analysts to assess regional economic impacts associated with temporary lost of transportation services on U.S. transportation network infrastructures. Using such freight demand models and available U.S. business forecasts, future national freight demands could be forecasted within certain degrees of accuracy. These freight demand models could also enable transportation analysts to further disaggregate the CFS state-level origin-destination tables to county or zip code level.

Monograph Accession #:

01042056

Report/Paper Numbers:

07-2896

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Chin, Shih-Miao
Hwang, Ho-Ling

Pagination:

17p

Publication Date:

2007

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 86th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2007-1-21 to 2007-1-25
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

CD-ROM

Features:

Figures (4) ; References (5) ; Tables (5)

Subject Areas:

Economics; Freight Transportation; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2007 Paper #07-2896

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Feb 8 2007 7:36PM