01045999

Component

For a probabilistic risk assessment of an Arch bridge, an innovative prediction method for the combination of failure modes is proposed and compared with the conventional system reliability analysis method. The suggested method generates unexpected combinations of failure modes in significantly reduced time and efforts, compared with the previous permutation method or the conventional system reliability analysis method. In addition to that, the suggested method can be used for the verification of the system reliability with more specific predictions of failure modes. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method (RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses for this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is laborious to be obtained by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment Method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, the target bridge system is modeled as series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for all the possible combination of failure modes.

01042056

07-1150

English

15p

2007

Transportation Research Board 86th Annual Meeting

CD-ROM

Figures (6) ; References (11) ; Tables (6)

Arch bridges; Failure; Failure analysis; Forecasting; Girder bridges; Girders; Limit state design; Monte Carlo method; Reliability; Risk assessment

Bridge girders

Bridges and other structures; Design; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I24: Design of Bridges and Retaining Walls

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2007 Paper #07-1150

TRIS, TRB

Feb 8 2007 5:46PM