Abstract:
Any metropolitan planning organization (MPO) faces significant uncertainties when developing financial constraint figures for the metropolitan transportation plan (MTP). These uncertainties focus on fluctuating allocations from various sources, but also complete loss of sources or appearance of new sources. Dealing with new sources and loss of existing sources of income in the short term can be vexing, and almost impossible to deal with in the long term. One approach to avoiding these types of pitfalls is to base revenue projections on historical revenue growth patterns. FHWA-FTA Fiscal Constraint Guidance, June 27, 2005, says, “States, MPOs, and transit operators may project and assume Federal revenues for the out-years based on a trend line projection.” This paper describes the use of MS Excel functions to project future revenue streams using a “forest for the trees” approach, not just for Federal funds, but for all transportation funds. It also describes the need to have valid historical data, test various scenarios, and apply common sense when adopting the results.
