01031514

Component

This paper compares the results of the Pickrell study to cost overruns of transit projects completed after 1990 to see if there has been any improvement in estimating the capital costs of rail transit projects in the past decade. Pickrell’s report, published in 1990, looked at 10 rail projects built in the 1980s and reported on the cost difference between the original cost estimates and the final costs of these projects. We have compared those statistics with data from 16 recent transit rail projects. The comparison focuses only on federally funded rail projects in the United States. The characteristics of the projects and data in the 1990 study and of the “recent” projects are presented followed by a statistical comparison. We conclude that there is evidence to suggest that cost overruns for projects completed before 1990 are different from that of projects completed after 1994 (i.e., cost overruns have become smaller), but we do not have sufficient data to statistically prove this at a level of significance of 5%. In our opinion this is a positive trend. We suggest that we continue to pursue the current research by collecting data as more transit projects are completed and as more data becomes available.

01020180

06-0897

English

20p

2006

Transportation Research Board 85th Annual Meeting

CD-ROM

Figures (4) ; References; Tables (4)

Capital costs; Cost overruns; Rail transit; Statistical analysis

Pickrell study

Federal funds; Transit projects

United States

Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2006 Paper #06-0897

TRIS, TRB

Mar 3 2006 10:30AM