00980006

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1871-03

http://scholar.google.com...Vogt&publication_year=2004

The Ohio River Navigation Investment Model (ORNIM) estimates the benefits of navigation improvements and balances those estimated benefits against the estimated costs of improvements. The economic assumptions within ORNIM are identified; the rationale for these assumptions is provided; and how these assumptions alter the estimates of inland-water navigation benefits, as compared with those of the theoretical model, are addressed. ORNIM is a spatially detailed partial equilibrium model that incorporates the following assumptions: (a) demand for individual movements, provided exogenously, is perfectly inelastic; (b) willingness to pay (WTP) for individual river movements is equal to the exogenously given least-cost alternative rail rate; and (c) the supply of rail for individual movements is perfectly elastic at the exogenously given rail rate. The first assumption biases upward estimates of with-project benefits. However, empirical evidence on demand elasticity and WTP suggests that these assumptions are reasonable in the short run. In the long run, decisions to move cargo by water depend only in part on river rates, with environmental and energy policies also being critical. The demand for waterway movements is determined exogenously to ORNIM, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' recent scenario-based approach to demand projection is laudable. The third assumption unequivocally biases downward ORNIM's estimate of with-project benefits. Future ORNIM enhancements include improvements in analyzing congestion fees, environmental externalities, traffic management, and system reliability as well as improvements in data quantity and quality. ORNIM, like other navigation models, is data constrained. Without significant data improvements, attempts to relax economic assumptions within ORNIM are of questionable value.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1871, Water Transport.

00980003

English

p. 13-23

2004

Transportation Research Record

0309094658

Figures (7) ; References (18)

Benefit cost analysis; Bias (Statistics); Decision making; Demand; Economic models; Elasticity (Economics); Energy consumption; Environmental policy; Estimates; Improvements; Inland waterways; Policy; Railroad transportation; Rates; Supply; Water transportation

Ohio River Navigation Investment Model

Willingness to pay

Ohio River

Administration and Management; Economics; Energy; Environment; Highways; Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Railroads

TRIS, TRB

Oct 14 2004 12:00AM

• DEVELOPMENT OF CONTAINER BARGE TRANSPORT ON SMALL WATERWAYS: FROM INCREASING SCALE TO INCREASING SCOPE
• FUTURE UTILIZATION AND OPTIMAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY FOR INLAND WATERWAYS: NEW MODEL FROM U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS TO ASSIST POLICY MAKERS
• INLAND SULFATE DEPOSITION IN NORTH AMERICA FROM MARINE EMISSIONS
• ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY IN ACHIEVING ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY GOALS IN THE MARITIME TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
• WATERWAYS AND LIVELIHOODS: JOURNEY TO THE MAINSTREAM?
• WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR WATER TRANSPORTATION IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN