00966627

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1840-08

http://scholar.google.com...anno&publication_year=2003

The likelihood of a crash or crash potential is significantly affected by the short-term turbulence of traffic flow. For this reason, crash potential must be estimated on a real-time basis by monitoring the current traffic condition. In this regard, a probabilistic real-time crash prediction model relating crash potential to various traffic flow characteristics that lead to crash occurrence, or crash precursors, was developed. In the development of the previous model, however, several assumptions were made that had not been clearly verified from either theoretical or empirical perspectives. Therefore, the objectives of the present study were to (a) suggest the rational methods by which the crash precursors included in the model can be determined on the basis of experimental results and (b) test the performance of the modified crash prediction model. The study found that crash precursors can be determined in an objective manner, eliminating a characteristic of the previous model, in which the model results were dependent on analysts' subjective categorization of crash precursors.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1840, Statistical Methods and Modeling and Safety Data, Analysis, and Evaluation.

English

p. 67-77

2003

Transportation Research Record

0309085810

Figures (5) ; References (13) ; Tables (2)

Freeways; Mathematical models; Mathematical prediction; Prevention; Real time data processing; Safety; Traffic crashes; Traffic flow

Crash precursors

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies; I81: Accident Statistics

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 16 2003 12:00AM

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