00932031

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1784-14

http://scholar.google.com....+Lu&publication_year=2002

Young drivers have the highest fatality involvement rates of any driver age group within the United Sates driving population. They also experience a higher percentage of single-vehicle crashes compared with others. When looking at the methods of improving this alarming death rate of young drivers, it is important to identify the determinants of higher crash and injury severity. With that intention, the study developed, using the Florida Traffic Crash Database, a set of sequential binary logistic regression models to predict the crash severity outcome of single-vehicle fixed-object crashes involving young drivers. Models were organized from the lowest severity level to the highest and vice versa to examine the reliability of the selection process, but it was found that there was no considerable impact based on this selection. The developed models were validated and the accuracy was tested by using crash data that were not utilized in the model development, and the results were found to be satisfactory. Factors influential in making a crash severity difference to young drivers were then identified through the models. Factors such as influence of alcohol or drugs, ejection in the crash, point of impact, rural crash locations, existence of curve or grade at the crash location, and speed of the vehicle significantly increased the probability of having a more severe crash. Restraint device usage and being a male clearly reduced the tendency of high severity, and some other variables, such as weather condition, residence location, and physical condition, were not important at all.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1784, Statistical Methodology: Applications to Design, Data Analysis, and Evaluation.

English

p. 108-114

2002

Transportation Research Record

0309077087

References (17) ; Tables (8)

Alcohol use; Crash severity; Drug use; Ejection; Fatalities; Gender; Highway curves; Highway grades; Injury severity; Logistic regression analysis; Regression analysis; Rural areas; Seat belts; Single vehicle crashes; Speed; Teenage drivers

Florida; United States

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; Society; I83: Accidents and the Human Factor

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Oct 11 2002 12:00AM

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• DEVELOPMENT OF A ROAD SAFETY RISK INDEX
• DIAGNOSTIC METHODOLOGY FOR THE DETECTION OF SAFETY PROBLEMS AT INTERSECTIONS
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