00932025

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1784-08

http://scholar.google.com...sano&publication_year=2002

Accident prediction models, also known as safety performance functions, have several important uses in modern-day safety analysis. Unfortunately, calibration of these models is not straightforward. A research effort was undertaken that demonstrates the complexity of calibrating these models for urban intersections. These complexities relate to the specification of the functional form, the accommodation of the peculiarities of accident data, and the transferability of models to other jurisdictions. Toronto data were used to estimate models for three- and four-legged signalized and unsignalized intersections. Then the performance of these models was compared with that of models for Vancouver and California that were recalibrated for Toronto using a procedure recently proposed for the application in the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The results of this transferability test are mixed, suggesting that a single calibration factor as is currently specified in the IHSDM procedure may be inappropriate and that a disaggregation by traffic volume might be preferable.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1784, Statistical Methodology: Applications to Design, Data Analysis, and Evaluation.

English

p. 57-64

2002

Transportation Research Record

0309077087

Figures (10) ; References (18) ; Tables (3)

Calibration; Crash risk forecasting; Mathematical models; Mathematical prediction; Signalized intersections; Traffic crashes; Unsignalized intersections; Urban areas

Interactive Highway Safety Design Model

Transferability

California; Toronto (Canada); Vancouver (Canada)

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I80: Accident Studies

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Oct 11 2002 12:00AM

• ANALYSIS OF CRASH PRECURSORS ON INSTRUMENTED FREEWAYS
• ANALYSIS OF SEVERITY OF YOUNG DRIVER CRASHES: SEQUENTIAL BINARY LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELING
• APPLICATION OF ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS FOR COMPUTATION OF ACCIDENT RISK ON TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS
• ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS AND LOGIT MODELS FOR TRAFFIC SAFETY ANALYSIS OF TOLL PLAZAS
• CROSS-MEDIAN COLLISIONS ON PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES AND EXPRESSWAYS
• DEVELOPMENT OF A ROAD SAFETY RISK INDEX
• DIAGNOSTIC METHODOLOGY FOR THE DETECTION OF SAFETY PROBLEMS AT INTERSECTIONS
• ESTIMATING SAFETY BY THE EMPIRICAL BAYES METHOD: A TUTORIAL
• EVALUATION OF LANE REDUCTION "ROAD DIET" MEASURES ON CRASHES AND INJURIES
• FEASIBILITY OF DRIVER JUDGMENT AS BASIS FOR A CRASH AVOIDANCE DATABASE
• IDENTIFYING LOCATIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCIDENT REDUCTIONS: USE OF DIRECT DIAGNOSTICS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION METHODOLOGIES
• INJURY SEVERITY ANALYSIS WITH VARIABLE AND CORRELATED THRESHOLDS: ORDERED MIXED LOGIT FORMULATION
• METHODOLOGIES USED TO ANALYZE COLLISION EXPERIENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED LIMIT CHANGES ON SELECTED CALIFORNIA HIGHWAYS
• MODELING THE SIMULTANEITY IN INJURY CAUSATION IN MULTIVEHICLE COLLISIONS
• MOTOR VEHICLE CRASHES AND LAND USE: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FROM HAWAII
• SCREENING THE ROAD NETWORK FOR SITES WITH PROMISE
• STUDY OF INTERSECTION ACCIDENTS BY MANEUVER TYPE
• USING SIMULATION TO PREDICT SAFETY AND OPERATIONAL IMPACTS OF INCREASING TRAFFIC SIGNAL DENSITY