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Title:

COST ESTIMATING UNDER UNCERTAINTY: ISSUES IN BRIDGE MANAGEMENT
Cover of COST ESTIMATING UNDER UNCERTAINTY: ISSUES IN BRIDGE MANAGEMENT

Accession Number:

00810884

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

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Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00978515

Abstract:

Bridge management involves making decisions related to selecting the most cost-effective bridge improvement strategies both at the project and network levels. Typical cost variables include agency costs, user costs, discount rates, inflation, or interest rates, life-cycle costs, etc. Lack of reliable sources for accurate deterministic cost data has been identified as one of the shortcomings of current models of bridge management. Uncertainties can easily lead to making the wrong decisions, especially in selecting the best from pairs of closely ranked competing strategies. Historical records can be used to generate probabilistic estimates. Expert opinions may also be used to suggest subjective estimates or used to complement estimates obtained from historical records. This paper presents an overview of this uncertainty problem in cost estimating of bridge decision variables and also discusses suggestions on how to handle the uncertainty using analytical tools such as the fuzzy sets and probability theories. The decision-making algorithms in some existing bridge management systems and cost models are used to illustrate the suggested uncertainty-handling methods and also show how the uncertainties can affect the overall decision.

Supplemental Notes:

Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

Report/Paper Numbers:

E-6, IBMC99-054

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Sobanjo, John O

Pagination:

14 p.

Publication Date:

2000-6

Serial:

Transportation Research Circular

Issue Number: 498
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
ISSN: 0097-8515

Conference:

Eighth International Bridge Management Conference

Location: Denver, Colorado
Date: 1999-4-26 to 1999-4-28
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board Committee on Bridge Maintenance and Management (A3C06)

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures (1) ; References

Subject Areas:

Bridges and other structures; Data and Information Technology; Design; Highways; I24: Design of Bridges and Retaining Walls

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

May 14 2001 12:00AM