00798878

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1699-11

http://scholar.google.com...talo&publication_year=2000

The state of Michigan has 191,432 km (118,950 mi) of roadway (paved and unpaved), including highways, roads, and streets. Local government agencies, which are responsible for 176,270 km (109,529 mi) of these roads and streets, commonly use a pavement management system (PMS) called RoadSoft to assist in managing their pavement network. A key element of any PMS is its ability to predict future pavement performance. A study is described in which various deterministic and probabilistic models were evaluated using data from two Michigan counties. It was found that the logistic growth model and the Markov model provided the best combination of predictive ability and potential for applicability in Michigan counties. A comparison between these models found that their predictive ability for four pavement segments with different deterioration rates was good, with the Markov model offering the added advantage of representing future performance as a probability distribution, not as a single condition state. Current plans are to implement the logistic growth model in RoadSoft by the end of 1999 and to add the Markov model as local organizations gather sufficient pavement condition data over the next 5 years. It is hoped that these two pavement deterioration models can be implemented in the RoadSoft PMS to improve pavement performance prediction.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1699, Pavement Management and Monitoring.

English

p. 81-86

2000

Transportation Research Record

0309066778

Figures (6) ; References (8) ; Tables (3)

Counties; Deterioration; Logistics; Markov processes; Mathematical models; Mathematical prediction; Pavement management systems; Pavement performance; Roads; Streets

Michigan

Data and Information Technology; Design; Freight Transportation; Highways; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways; I23: Properties of Road Surfaces

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Sep 7 2000 12:00AM

• ACCURACY OF WEATHER DATA IN LONG-TERM PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE PROGRAM DATABASE
• APPLYING ECONOMIC CONCEPTS FROM LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS TO PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS
• ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK FOR ENHANCING SELECTION OF PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE STRATEGY
• DEVELOPING A QUANTITATIVE RATING SYSTEM FOR CONTINUOUSLY REINFORCED CONCRETE PAVEMENT
• DEVELOPMENT OF PAVEMENT TYPE EVALUATION PROCEDURE FOR TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
• EARLY EVALUATION OF LONG-TERM PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE SPECIFIC PAVEMENT STUDIES-2, COLORADO
• EVALUATION OF ACCURACY OF SURFACE PROFILERS
• EVALUATION OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PROFILOGRAPH AND PROFILE-BASED ROUGHNESS INDEXES
• FORECASTING OF PAVEMENT CRACK PERFORMANCE WITH ADAPTIVE FILTER MODEL
• INCORPORATING ROAD SAFETY INTO PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT
• INVESTIGATION OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ROUGHNESS AND PAVEMENT SURFACE DISTRESS BASED ON WESTRACK PROJECT
• LABORATORY CALIBRATION AND IN SITU MEASUREMENTS OF MOISTURE BY USING TIME-DOMAIN REFLECTOMETRY PROBES
• MECHANISTIC ROUGHNESS MODEL BASED ON VEHICLE-PAVEMENT INTERACTION
• PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION OF A MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR UTILITY CUTS
• PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF WISCONSIN PAVEMENTS AND TRADE-OFFS IN PAVEMENT IMPROVEMENT
• ROAD USER COST MODELS FOR NETWORK-LEVEL PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT
• SIMULATION MODEL FOR CALCULATING PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES INCLUDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
• SOLUTION OF PAVEMENT DETERIORATION EQUATIONS BY GENETIC ALGORITHMS
• STRUCTURED APPROACH TO MANAGING QUALITY OF PAVEMENT DISTRESS DATA: VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EXPERIENCE
• USING DURATION MODELS TO ANALYZE EXPERIMENTAL PAVEMENT FAILURE DATA
• USING PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM CONCEPTS TO DETERMINE THE COST AND IMPACT OF UTILITY TRENCHING ON AN URBAN ROAD NETWORK