00771100

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1666-12

http://scholar.google.com...Zeng&publication_year=1999

Bus headway in a rural area usually is much larger than that in an urban area. Providing real-time bus arrival information could make the public transit system more user-friendly and thus enhance its competitiveness among various transportation modes. As part of an operational test for rural traveler information systems currently ongoing in Blacksburg, Virginia, an experimental study has been conducted on forecasting the arrival time of the next bus with automatic vehicle location techniques. The process of developing arrival time estimation algorithms is discussed, including route representation, global positioning system (GPS) data screening for identifying data quality and delay patterns, algorithm formulation, and development of measures of performance. Whereas GPS-based bus location data are adopted in all four algorithms presented, the extent to which other information is used in these algorithms varies. In addition to bus location data, information relevant to the performance of an algorithm includes scheduled arrival time, delay correlation, and waiting time at time-check stops. The performance of an algorithm using different levels of information is compared against three criteria: overall precision, robustness, and stability. Results show that at the site where the study is being conducted, the dwell time at time-check stops is most relevant to the performance of an algorithm.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1666, Transit Bus; Rural, Intercity, and Paratransit; New Technology, Capacity, and Quality of Service.

English

p. 101-109

1999

Transportation Research Record

0309070619

Figures (7) ; References (5) ; Tables (2)

Algorithms; Automatic vehicle location; Dwell time; Forecasting; Global Positioning System; Headways; Precision; Rural transit; Traveler information and communication systems

Arrival time

Blacksburg (Virginia)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Oct 6 1999 12:00AM

• ACCESS TO INTERCITY PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SERVICES FROM SMALL COMMUNITIES: GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS
• ASSESSING MEANS OF TRANSIT INFORMATION DELIVERY FOR ADVANCED PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
• AUTOMATED BUS DISPATCHING, OPERATIONS CONTROL, AND SERVICE RELIABILITY: BASELINE ANALYSIS
• BUS STOP DESIGN AND AUTOMATED GUIDANCE FOR LOW-FLOOR BUSES: EVALUATION OF PROTOTYPES WITH INVESTIGATION OF HUMAN FACTORS
• CARSHARING AND PARTNERSHIP MANAGEMENT: AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
• COMPONENTS OF TRAVEL TIME ON THE GLENDALE BEELINE BUS NETWORK
• ECONOMIC IMPACT OF RURAL TRANSIT SERVICES
• EVALUATION RESULTS OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA STATION-CAR DEMONSTRATION
• IMPLEMENTATION OF A TIMED TRANSFER NETWORK AT NORFOLK, VIRGINIA
• IMPROVING PARATRANSIT SCHEDULING BY ACCOUNTING FOR DYNAMIC AND STOCHASTIC VARIATIONS IN TRAVEL TIME
• MODEL TO MINIMIZE NONREVENUE COSTS IN BUS TRANSIT OPERATIONS
• PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF AUTOMATED VEHICLE LOCATOR AND DIGITAL MAP ACCURACY IN TRANSIT APPLICATION
• PRAXITELE: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM THE SAINT-QUENTIN STATION-CAR EXPERIMENT
• REGIONAL COMMUTER BUSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL APPLICABILITY IN CONNECTICUT
• WHO NOTICED, WHO CARES? PASSENGER REACTIONS TO TRANSIT SAFETY MEASURES