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Title:
FORECASTING SHORT-TERM FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION DEMAND: POISSON STARMA MODEL
Accession Number:
00757511
Availability:
Transportation Research Board Business Office
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States
Abstract:
A framework for analyzing, describing, and forecasting freight flows for operational and tactical purposes is presented. A dynamic econometric model is proposed. This model incorporates the spatial and temporal characteristics of freight demand within a stochastic framework. The model was applied in an actual context and its performance was compared with standard time series models (benchmark) for forecasting ability. The proposed model outperformed the benchmark from the econometric viewpoint. Extensive diagnostic checking and sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the modeling methodology for short-term forecasting applications.
Supplemental Notes:
This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1645, Forecasting, Travel Behavior, and Network Modeling.
Corporate Authors:
Transportation Research Board
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States
Authors:
Garrido, R A
Mahmassani, H S
Features:
Figures
(1)
; References
(15)
; Tables
(6)
Subject Areas:
Data and Information Technology; Economics; Freight Transportation; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning
Created Date:
Dec 11 1998 12:00AM
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