00757443

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1634-03

http://scholar.google.com...rell&publication_year=1998

The 1991 Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act, along with the National Highway System Designation Act of 1995, mandated that congestion management systems be established in urbanized areas with population of 200,000 or more. The mandate created a need for congestion monitoring. A 1995 informal national survey of transportation agencies by the Federal Highway Administration indicated a need for tools to evaluate the impacts of remedial strategies. Further, some agencies have sponsored research on topics such as congestion thresholds and measurement methods. This paper proposes a model that estimates the probability of congestion recurrence at existing and potential freeway bottlenecks. The objectives were that the model accept data that are commonly collected, evaluate existing conditions, predict future conditions, and assess the impacts of mitigating actions. A logistic regression equation is developed from 163 observations. The equation is bivariate, with the annual average daily traffic volume to hourly capacity ratio (AADT/C) and the K-factor as explanatory variables, and RECON, a binary congestion indicator, as the response variable. The model correctly classifies 83% of the data sites used in its development, but it needs to be tested on other data. An AADT/C value of 8.5 may be a critical threshold separating the noncongested and congested regimes. Future research might experiment with other explanatory variables. A larger database might yield an improved classification rate. The extra data might also enable the development of a nested logit model that estimates the probabilities of no congestion, congestion once a day, and congestion twice a day at a bottleneck.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1634, Managing Urban Traffic Systems: Freeway Operations, High-Occupancy Vehicle Systems, and Traffic Signal Systems.

English

p. 19-27

1998

Transportation Research Record

0309065062

Figures (2) ; References (35) ; Tables (5)

Annual average daily traffic; Bottlenecks; Equations; Estimating; Freeways; Future; Highway capacity; Logistic regression analysis; Logistics; Mathematical models; Probability; Ratios; Regression analysis; Research; Traffic congestion; Variables

Future research

Data and Information Technology; Freight Transportation; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Research; I71: Traffic Theory

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 2 1998 12:00AM

• A NEW APPROACH TO HOV ENTRY REQUIREMENTS: MASSHIGHWAY'S 3+/LIMITED 2+ STICKER PROGRAM
• A REAL-TIME SIMULATION ENVIRONMENT FOR EVALUATING TRAFFIC SIGNAL SYSTEMS
• DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF CONTROL STRATEGIES FOR SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS IN COORDINATED SYSTEMS
• DEVELOPMENT OF AN ADAPTIVE CONTROL STRATEGY IN A LIVE INTERSECTION LABORATORY
• EVALUATION OF THE MASSACHUSETTS MOTORIST ASSISTANCE PROGRAM: ASSESSMENT OF CONGESTION AND AIR QUALITY IMPACTS
• EXPLORATION OF THE BREAKDOWN PHENOMENON IN FREEWAY TRAFFIC
• FREEWAY SERVICE PATROLS: A STATE OF THE PRACTICE
• FUZZY ART NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR AUTOMATED DETECTION OF FREEWAY INCIDENTS
• FUZZY RAMP METERING: DESIGN OVERVIEW AND SIMULATION RESULTS
• INVESTIGATION OF FREEWAY INCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS AND THEIR INFLUENCE IN PLANNING AN INCIDENT MANAGEMENT PROGRAM
• MEASURING TRAFFIC CONGESTION
• MOTORIST BEHAVIOR AND OPINIONS TOWARD HIGH-OCCUPANCY VEHICLE LANES AT RAMP METERS
• PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT FOR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
• REAL-TIME TRAFFIC SIGNAL OPTIMIZATION WITH TRANSIT PRIORITY: RECENT ADVANCES IN THE SIGNAL PRIORITY PROCEDURE FOR OPTIMIZATION IN REAL-TIME MODEL
• TRAFFIC MONITORING AND CONGESTION MANAGEMENT IN THE SCOOT URBAN TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM
• VEHICULAR FLOW PAST INCIDENTS INVOLVING LANE BLOCKAGE ON URBAN ROADS: A PRELIMINARY EXPLORATION