00744759

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1607-14

http://scholar.google.com...Nobe&publication_year=1997

An iterative approach to predicting network loads is presented. It is based on the assumption that some assignment approach first provides a ball-park estimate of network loads and therefore can be used as a prior estimate in an iterative Bayesian procedure. The procedure then uses as an intermediate step a Bayesian update to synthesize an origin-destination (OD) trip matrix from the measured link loads. It allows for different degrees of belief in the prior estimates of ODs as well as in different aspects of these prior estimates. On the basis of differences between the measured link loads and those based on OD estimates, an iterative procedure is proposed so that the updated synthesized ODs approximately produce the measured loads. Because the eventual objective of the developed model is to predict traffic loads in the case of unexpected traffic congestion or a traffic incident, an application of this approach is presented within this scenario.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1607, Transportation Forecasting and Travel Behavior.

English

p. 95-104

1997

Transportation Research Record

0309062136

Figures (7) ; References (38)

Forecasting; Iterative methods; Link volume; Origin and destination; Traffic congestion; Traffic incidents; Traffic loads

Bayesian updating; Incidents

Freight Transportation; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 8 1998 12:00AM

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