00743643

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1600-03

http://scholar.google.com...uros&publication_year=1997

The development of a PC-based and easy-to-use-and-update econometric model system for forecasting arrivals at the Honolulu International Airport is presented. A model system instead of a single model was designed so that differential growth rates from various origins as well as arrivals affected by curfews at the origin or the destination, or both, can be estimated. The airport system of the state facilitates the only mode of transportation into and out of Hawaii. Planning based on reliable demand forecasts is therefore essential. Separate models of arrivals from Australia and New Zealand, Canada, Germany, Korea, and the United Kingdom were specified and estimated using the Cochrane-Orcutt regression method. Several diagnostic tests were employed to arrive at the final models, as problems of correlation (over time) and colinearity (among variables) were present. Independent variables include the gross domestic product, population, monetary exchange rate, and unemployment rate of the origin countries. Historical values for the independent variables were taken from the publications of international organizations. Variables for wars that tend to affect flying security and natural disasters in Hawaii that affect the supply of tourist accommodations were included in the model specifications.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1600, Airports: Ground Access and Economic Issues.

English

p. 18-27

1997

Transportation Research Record

0309062128

Figures (3) ; References (18) ; Tables (5)

Air travel; Arrivals and departures; Demand; Econometric models; Economic forecasting; Origin and destination; Variables

Honolulu International Airport

Aviation; Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 12 1997 12:00AM

• AIRPORT GROUND ACCESS AND INTERMODAL INTERFACE
• GENERAL AVIATION USER BENEFITS
• INCREASING RAIL TRANSIT ACCESS TO AIRPORTS IN CHICAGO