00732366

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1554-17

http://scholar.google.com...tsky&publication_year=1996

Freeway traffic flow forecasting will play an important role in intelligent transportation systems. The Transportation Research Board (TRB) Committee on Freeway Operations has included freeway flow forecasting in its 1995 research program. Much of the past research in traffic flow forecasting has addressed short-term, single-interval predictions. Such limited forecasting models will not support the development of the longer-term operational strategies needed for such events as hazardous material incidents. A multiple-interval freeway traffic flow forecasting model has been developed that predicts traffic volumes in 15-min intervals for several hours into the future. The nonparametric regression modeling technique was chosen for the multiple-interval freeway traffic flow forecasting problem. The technique possesses a number of attractive qualities for traffic forecasting. It is intuitive and uses a data base of past conditions to generate forecasts. It can also be implemented as a generic algorithm and is easily calibrated at field locations, suiting it for wide-scale deployment. The model was applied at two sites on the Capital Beltway monitored by the Northern Virginia Traffic Management System. The nonparametric regression forecasting model produced accurate short- and long-term volume estimates at both sites.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1554, Advanced Traffic Management Systems and High-Occupancy-Vehicle Systems.

English

p. 136-141

1996

Transportation Research Record

030905950X

Figures (6) ; References (9) ; Tables (3)

Accuracy; Algorithms; Estimates; Forecasting; Freeways; Regression analysis; Time duration; Traffic flow; Traffic volume

Capital Beltway

Long term; Short term

Virginia

Virginia

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; I71: Traffic Theory

TRIS, TRB

Feb 12 1997 12:00AM

• ALGORITHM FOR CONTROLLING SPILLBACK FROM RAMP METERS
• ANALYSIS OF MAJOR FREEWAY INCIDENTS IN HOUSTON, TEXAS
• COMBINED MODEL FOR SIGNAL CONTROL AND ROUTE CHOICE IN URBAN TRAFFIC NETWORKS
• CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS IN SCOOT: VERSION 3
• DECISION-MAKING SYSTEM FOR FREEWAY INCIDENT RESPONSE USING SEQUENTIAL HYPOTHESIS TESTING METHODS
• DERIVING INCIDENT MANAGEMENT MEASURES USING INCIDENT PROBABILITY MODELS AND SIMULATION
• DETERMINATION OF TIMINGS IN SIGNAL SYSTEMS WITH TRAFFIC-ACTUATED CONTROLLERS
• DEVELOPMENT OF ARTERIAL HIGH-OCCUPANCY-VEHICLE LANE ENFORCEMENT TECHNIQUES
• DISTRIBUTED APPROACH TO REAL-TIME CONTROL OF COMPLEX SIGNALIZED NETWORKS
• EFFECT ON CONGESTION AND MOTORCYCLE SAFETY OF MOTORCYCLE TRAVEL ON HIGH-OCCUPANCY-VEHICLE FACILITIES IN VIRGINIA
• ESTIMATING IMPACT OF SIGNAL HARDWARE IMPROVEMENTS
• EVALUATION OF BUS PRIORITY SIGNAL STRATEGIES IN ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN
• EVALUATION OF COMPLIANCE RATES AND TRAVEL TIME CALCULATION FOR AUTOMATIC ALTERNATIVE ROUTE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS ON FREEWAYS
• EVALUATION OF HIGH-OCCUPANCY-VEHICLE LANES ON LONG ISLAND EXPRESSWAY
• GUIDELINES FOR ACTUATED CONTROLLERS IN COORDINATED SYSTEMS
• I-880 FIELD EXPERIMENT: DATA-BASE DEVELOPMENT AND INCIDENT DELAY ESTIMATION PROCEDURES
• IMPLEMENTATION VISION FOR DISTRIBUTED CONTROL OF TRAFFIC SIGNAL SUBSYSTEMS
• MULTIBAND-96: A PROGRAM FOR VARIABLE-BANDWIDTH PROGRESSION OPTIMIZATION OF MULTIARTERIAL TRAFFIC NETWORKS
• MULTIVARIATE OPTIMIZATION STRATEGIES FOR REAL-TIME TRAFFIC CONTROL SIGNALS
• NETSIM-BASED APPROACH TO EVALUATION OF BUS PREEMPTION STRATEGIES
• NEW METHODOLOGY FOR SMOOTHING FREEWAY LOOP DETECTOR DATA: INTRODUCTION TO DIGITAL FILTERING
• PREDICTING HIGH-OCCUPANCY-VEHICLE FACILITY DEMAND
• SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR EVALUATION OF HIGH-OCCUPANCY-VEHICLE FACILITIES
• SYSTEMWIDE ANALYSIS OF FREEWAY IMPROVEMENTS
• TRANSFERABILITY OF FREEWAY INCIDENT DETECTION ALGORITHMS
• USING PROBE-MEASURED TRAVEL TIMES TO DETECT MAJOR FREEWAY INCIDENTS IN HOUSTON, TEXAS