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Title:

A CALM BETWEEN STORMS

Accession Number:

00721437

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

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Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00978515

Abstract:

This workshop presentation discusses the current global economic environment in which civil aviation is operating. 1995 started with a series of crises in the global economy, but the situation has calmed somewhat in the last few months. On the other hand, it is fairly sure there will be new upsets either in the remainder of 1995 or next year. It is impossible to forecast exactly what these upsets will be, when they will occur, or where. Following a review of the economic problems throughout the world in the first half of 1995, a short-term outlook for the global economy is given. This is followed by a long-term outlook for the years 1995 to 2010. For both the short term and the long term, it is the developing countries that are predicted to show the most rapid growth. A risk analysis by region is then presented. The focus is on emerging markets, where risks are highest. Seven countries are then selected for a disaggregated country by country risk analysis. A further level of disaggregation is made to pinpoint various sources of risk (financial, economic, political) and specific investment or business concerns. In conclusion, it is pointed out that detailed risk measures can be combined with traditional analysis of market opportunity to devise strategy for the best risk-reward tradeoffs.

Supplemental Notes:

Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Mills, C

Pagination:

p. 11-20

Publication Date:

1996-2

Serial:

Transportation Research Circular

Issue Number: 454
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
ISSN: 0097-8515

Conference:

Future Aviation Activities: Ninth International Workshop

Location: National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.
Date: 1995-9-18 to 1995-9-20
Sponsors: Federal Aviation Administration

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures (9)

Uncontrolled Terms:

Long term; Short term

Old TRIS Terms:

Subject Areas:

Aviation; Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

May 13 1996 12:00AM

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