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Title: FORECASTING AIR TRAVEL ARRIVALS: MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION AT THE HONOLULU INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Accession Number: 00715567
Record Type: Component
Availability: Find a library where document is available Abstract: Honolulu International Airport is one of the dozen busiest airports in the United States. It provides a port of entry for foreign flights and both domestic and interisland terminals. For Hawaii's airport engineers and planners, this status makes short- to medium-term air travel forecasts essential, particularly for landside applications. A unique model system is described with separate models for each origin region or country. The models are estimated with the Cochrane-Orcutt regression procedure. Major explanatory variables include the gross national product (GNP), gross domestic product (GDP) (in various forms), and the consumer price index (CPI). Exchange rates, strength of currencies, and variables for wars, recessions, and airline strikes are also introduced. The models adhere closely to the actual number of arrivals, and all variables perform as expected. The USA model has an overall error rate (for the 18 years of the estimation span) of less than 0.05% and annual extreme errors ranging from -6.4% to 5.7%. The Japan model also has an overall error rate of less than 0.05% and annual extreme errors ranging from -7.5% to 10.4%. Near-future values for explanatory variables can be obtained from major economic organizations, thus the use of the model system requires only that planners update variable values annually from regularly issued publications. Long-term forecasts are more difficult due to the lack of published data. In those cases, the user must resort to a combination of trend extrapolation with ARIMA, as shown in this discussion, and educated estimates based on contemporary macroeconomic literature.
Supplemental Notes: This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1506. Airport and Air Transportation Issues. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
Monograph Title: Monograph Accession #: 01399818
Language: English
Authors: Kawad, SanjayPrevedouros, Panos DPagination: p. 18-25
Publication Date: 1995
Serial: Features: Figures
(3)
; References
(19)
TRT Terms: Identifier Terms: Old TRIS Terms: Subject Areas: Aviation; Highways; Planning and Forecasting
Files: TRIS, TRB
Created Date: Jan 4 1996 12:00AM
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