00714867

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...trr/1995/1493/1493-018.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...mall&publication_year=1995

Existing models of the commuting time-of-day choice were used to analyze the effect of uncertain travel times. Travel time included a time-varying congestion component and a random element specified by a probability distribution. The results from the uniform and exponential probability distributions were compared and the optimal "head-start" time that the commuter chooses to account for travel time variability, that is, a safety margin that determines the probability of arriving late for work, was derived. The model includes a one-time lateness penalty for arriving late as well as the per-minute penalties for early and late arrival that are included by other investigators. It also generalizes earlier work by accounting for the time variation in the predictable component of congestion, which interacts with uncertainty in interesting ways. A brief numerical analysis of the model reveals that uncertainty can account for a large proportion of the costs of the morning commute.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1493, Travel Demand Forecasting, Travel Behavior Analysis, Time-Sensitive Transportation, and Traffic Assignment Methods. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

01399823

English

p. 150-158

1995

Transportation Research Record

0309061709

References (38) ; Tables (5)

Commuting; Costs; Departure time; Distributions (Statistics); Numerical analysis; Travel time; Uncertainty

Choices; Cost models

Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB

Dec 8 1995 12:00AM

• ALTERNATIVE METHODS TO ITERATE A REGIONAL TRAVEL SIMULATION MODEL: COMPUTATIONAL PRACTICALITY AND ACCURACY
• ANALYSIS OF TEMPORAL TRANSFERABILITY OF DISAGGREGATE WORK TRIP MODE CHOICE MODELS
• COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE METHODS FOR UPDATING DISAGGREGATE LOGIT MODE CHOICE MODELS
• COMPETING RISK HAZARD MODEL OF ACTIVITY CHOICE, TIMING, SEQUENCING, AND DURATION
• CONTRIBUTIONS TO LOGIT ASSIGNMENT MODEL
• EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT DATA COLLECTION PROCEDURES IN TIME USE RESEARCH
• EFFECTS OF INCREASED HIGHWAY CAPACITY: RESULTS OF HOUSEHOLD TRAVEL BEHAVIOR SURVEY
• EVOLUTION OF NETWORK FLOWS UNDER REAL-TIME INFORMATION: DAY-TO-DAY DYNAMIC SIMULATION ASSIGNMENT FRAMEWORK
• EVOLUTIONARY TRANSPORTATION PLANNING MODEL: STRUCTURE AND APPLICATION
• EXPLORING ROUTE CHOICE BEHAVIOR USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM-BASED ALTERNATIVE ROUTES AND HYPOTHETICAL TRAVEL TIME INFORMATION INPUT
• HOUSEHOLD TRAVEL SURVEY NONRESPONSE ESTIMATES: THE CHICAGO EXPERIENCE
• IMPLEMENTING COMBINED MODEL OF ORIGIN-DESTINATION AND ROUTE CHOICE IN EMME/2 SYSTEM
• IMPROVING EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL VEHICLE OPERATIONS USING REAL-TIME INFORMATION: POTENTIAL USES AND ASSIGNMENT STRATEGIES
• INFLUENCE OF DUTCH MOBILITY POLICY ON EMANCIPATION PROCESS FOR WOMEN AND MEN
• INTRODUCTION OF INFORMATION FEEDBACK LOOP TO ENHANCE URBAN TRANSPORTATION MODELING SYSTEM
• INVESTIGATING EFFECT OF TRAVEL TIME VARIABILITY ON ROUTE CHOICE USING REPEATED-MEASUREMENT STATED PREFERENCE DATA
• NATIONWIDE RECREATION TRAVEL SURVEY IN JAPAN: OUTLINE AND MODELING APPLICABILITY
• NEW APPROACH TO ROUTE CHOICE DATA COLLECTION: MULTIPHASE, COMPUTER-AIDED TELEPHONE INTERVIEW PANEL SURVEYS USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS DATA BASE
• QUASI-CONTINUOUS DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT MODEL
• RECURSIVE STRUCTURE FOR EXACT LINE PROBABILITIES AND EXPECTED WAITING TIMES IN MULTIPATH TRANSIT ASSIGNMENT
• SAMPLE SELECTION BIAS WITH MULTIPLE SELECTION RULES: APPLICATION WITH RESIDENTIAL RELOCATION, ATTRITION, AND ACTIVITY PARTICIPATION IN PUGET SOUND TRANSPORTATION PANEL
• TEMPORAL VARIATIONS ON ALLOCATION OF TIME
• TRIP GENERATION FOR SHOPPING TRAVEL