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Title:

MICROSCOPIC ACCIDENT POTENTIAL MODELS FOR TWO-LANE RURAL ROADS

Accession Number:

00713545

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

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Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03611981

Abstract:

Fundamental to the present research is the use of hourly traffic volumes in regression models for estimating accident potential on two-lane rural roads. By using data from Ontario, Canada, a simple model form, and a regression package that allows the assumption of a negative binomial error structure, regression models were calibrated for the different combinations of time periods (24 hr, day hours, and night hours) and geometric (roadway and shoulder width) characteristics. It is shown that the effect of day/night conditions is different for single-vehicle and multivehicle accidents. For single-vehicle accidents the accident potential is higher during the night, whereas for multivehicle accidents the opposite is true. This indicates the importance of differentiating between single-vehicle and multivehicle accidents and day/night conditions. The refinement of the regression predictions by the empirical Bayesian (EB) estimation procedure for individual road sections is illustrated. It is shown through a validation exercise that the EB procedure provides better estimates of accident potential than the conventional method only on the basis of the short-term accident count for a section.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1485, Human Performance and Safety in Highway, Traffic, and ITS Systems. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

Monograph Accession #:

01399793

Language:

English

Authors:

Persaud, Bhagwant N
Mucsi, Kornel

Pagination:

p. 134-139

Publication Date:

1995

Serial:

Transportation Research Record

Issue Number: 1485
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
ISSN: 0361-1981

Features:

Figures (3) ; References (7) ; Tables (4)

Uncontrolled Terms:

Microscopic models

Subject Areas:

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I82: Accidents and Transport Infrastructure

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Nov 13 1995 12:00AM

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