00676670

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...trr/1994/1455/1455-020.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...elli&publication_year=1994

Belief functions, otherwise known as the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence, were applied to pavement management system (PMS) decision making. The theory has been advocated by many as a method of representing incomplete evidence of a system's knowledge base. Dempster-Shafer theory has attracted much attention in the artificial intelligence community in recent years because it suggests a coherent approach to aggregate evidence bearing groups of mutually exclusive hypotheses. Two related issues in PMS decision making are examined: (a) the handling of overall uncertainty in project-level and network-level decisions and (b) the handling of incomplete and imprecise data and information. A prototype evidential decision network for pavement management is constructed to illustrate the applicability of the theory. The resulting formulation demonstrates that many of the shortcomings of alternative methods of handling uncertainty may be overcome.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1455, Pavement Management Systems. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

01396805

English

p. 153-158

1994

Transportation Research Record

030906063X

Figures (3) ; References (7) ; Tables (7)

Decision making; Evidence; Pavement management systems; Prototypes; Uncertainty

Bridges and other structures; Design; Highways; Law; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways; I23: Properties of Road Surfaces

TRIS, TRB

Apr 24 1995 12:00AM

• ANALYSIS OF ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION'S NEW PAVEMENT NETWORK OPTIMIZATION SYSTEM
• ANALYZING CONSEQUENCES OF PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE AND REHABILITATION BUDGET SCENARIOS
• BENEFITS FROM RESEARCH INVESTMENT: CASE OF AUSTRALIAN ACCELERATED LOADING FACILITY PAVEMENT RESEARCH PROGRAM
• COMPILATION OF FIRST HUNGARIAN NETWORK-LEVEL PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
• DESIGN SPECIFICATIONS AND IMPLEMENTATION REQUIREMENTS FOR STATE-LEVEL LONG-TERM PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE PROGRAM
• DEVELOPMENT OF PROJECT-LEVEL URBAN ROADWAY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
• DISTRESS AS FUNCTION OF AGE IN CONTINUOUSLY REINFORCED CONCRETE PAVEMENTS: MODELS DEVELOPED FOR TEXAS PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM
• FORECASTING PAVEMENT REHABILITATION NEEDS FOR ILLINOIS INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM
• IMPACT ANALYSIS OF ROAD KEEPING: CASE STUDY OF LAPLAND DISTRICT IN FINLAND
• IMPACT OF DIFFERENT ECONOMIC CRITERIA ON PRIORITIES IN PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
• INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: CASE STUDY OF THE FINNISH NATIONAL ROAD ADMINISTRATION
• MAINTENANCE PLANNING METHODOLOGY FOR STATEWIDE PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT
• NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND PROSPERITY RELATED TO PAVED ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE
• NETWORK-LEVEL PRIORITIZATION OF LOCAL PAVEMENT IMPROVEMENTS IN SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED COMMUNITIES
• NONPREEMPTIVE GOAL PROGRAMMING METHODOLOGY FOR DEVELOPING ANNUAL PAVEMENT PROGRAM
• OPTIMAL PROGRAMMING BY GENETIC ALGORITHMS FOR PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT
• OPTIMALITY OF HIGHWAY PAVEMENT STRATEGIES IN CANADA
• PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR PROVINCES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: IMPLEMENTATION IN FAYOUM, EGYPT
• PROPOSAL OF UNIVERSAL CRACKING INDICATOR FOR PAVEMENTS (WITH DISCUSSION AND CLOSURE)
• RESIDENTIAL STREET DESIGN: DO THE BRITISH AND AUSTRALIANS KNOW SOMETHING AMERICANS DO NOT?
• ROLES OF METROPOLITAN PLANNING ORGANIZATIONS IN PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT
• SELECTION OF PREFERRED PAVEMENT DESIGN ALTERNATIVE USING MULTIATTRIBUTE UTILITY ANALYSIS
• WISCONSIN'S PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM