00625127

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...trr/1992/1341/1341-002.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...rney&publication_year=1992

Advantages and disadvantages of various high-speed rail (HSR) ridership forecasting approaches are summarized, and a recommended forecasting approach is presented. The recommended approach involves the use of separate relationships to estimate the diversion from each existing mode to HSR. This approach makes use of the behavioral information travelers have already provided by their revealed preferences to use existing modes for intercity trips. The choice of current modes for specific trip purposes reveals a great deal about how individuals value the attributes of that mode relative to other modes. This information is also of use in estimating induced demand. The approach presented here has been used in forecasting HSR ridership and revenue in Florida, Texas, and the Northeast Corridor. To illustrate how different factors influence the demand for HSR, model results are presented along with implied values of time and selected demand elasticities. The variation between market segments for the various components of travel time and cost is strong evidence that this approach is necessary for forecasting HSR ridership. The resulting models are also shown to be transparent in providing design information for new mode applications that can be used to maximize ridership, revenue, or the public benefits that justify public subsidies for the new modes.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1341, Railroad Issues. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

01404968

English

p. 12-18

1992

Transportation Research Record

0309052076

References (10) ; Tables (4)

Demand; Elasticity (Mechanics); Estimating; Forecasting; High speed rail; Intercity transportation; Markets; Mode choice; Passenger transportation; Revenues; Ridership; Travel budgets; Travel costs; Travel demand; Travel time; Value of time

Florida; Northeast Corridor; Northeastern United States; Texas

Finance; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads

TRIS, TRB

Oct 19 1993 12:00AM

• APPLYING STATISTICAL PROCESS CONTROL METHODS IN RAILROAD FREIGHT CLASSIFICATION YARDS
• BOSTON-NEW YORK COMMUTER AND INTERCITY RAIL IMPROVEMENT POTENTIAL
• CHANGING LONG-DISTANCE PASSENGER MARKETS IN A DEREGULATED ENVIRONMENT
• DEFINITION OF HOMOGENEOUS SEGMENTS ON THE BASIS OF CONDITION DATA: GENERAL APPROACHES AND SPECIFIC APPLICATION TO RAIL MAINTENANCE
• FREIGHT SERVICE QUALITY COST ECONOMICS AND A HYPOTHETICAL RAILROAD EXAMPLE
• HEAD-HARDENED RAILS PRODUCED FROM ROLLING HEAT
• IMPLICATIONS OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL ON AIR TRAFFIC
• TURNOUT REHABILITATION WITH BITUMINOUS CONCRETE UNDERLAYMENTS