00615778

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...trr/1991/1297/1297-010.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...hnke&publication_year=1991

Historical data on a small number of economic, demographic, and transportation variables from 1958 to 1986 were analyzed by multiple regression techniques to develop two models for forecasting transit ridership in Honolulu. A model predicting revenue trips and another for linked trips were consistent in their determination that the same five variables could account for 97 to 98 percent of the variance in bus ridership over this 29-year period. The four major variables were per capita income, employment, fares, and size of bus fleet, with a dummy variable included for strikes. The income elasticity for transit demand was found to be negative, indicating that mass transit is an inferior good. The model forecasts a continuing decline in bus ridership for Honolulu, mainly caused by this effect. The forecasting models for rapid transit ridership for Honolulu are examined, and alternative approaches to assessing demand elasticities are discussed. The advantages of using aggregate historical data and regression analyses for developing inexpensive forecasting models from time series data are emphasized.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1297, Public Transit Research: Management and Planning 1991. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

01407095

Davidson, William A

p. 76-84

1991

Transportation Research Record

0309051037

Figures (2) ; References (46)

Bus transit; Demand; Elasticity (Mechanics); Employment; Fares; Fleet management; Forecasting; History; Income; Mathematical models; Multiple regression analysis; Multivariate analysis; Public transit; Rapid transit; Ridership; Strikes; Time series; Time series analysis; Transportation

Fleet size; Transportation models

Honolulu (Hawaii)

Honolulu (Hawaii)

History; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General)

TRIS, TRB

Sep 30 1991 12:00AM

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