00475991

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...trr/1987/1155/1155-007.pdf

In much the same way that rising oil prices in the 1970s profoundly influenced petroleum production and consumption, an era of persistently low prices will have far-reaching consequences for petroleum supply and demand. Many of those consequences are indirect and will not be widely understood for some time; others are more clear-cut. In this paper, some of the anticipated consequences will be explored, including revised estimates of domestic petroleum reserves, production, and consumption, as well as oil imports. The focus is on transportation, the largest consumer of petroleum products and the most petroleum-dependent sector of the U.S. economy, and the conclusion is that persistently low oil prices will result in a significant decline in domestic oil production, a modest increase in petroleum consumption overall and in transportation (primarily due to reduced fuel efficiency in the vehicle fleet), and a substantial increase in our import dependence and vulnerability to supply interruptions and price shocks. Together, these effects increase the need for improved fuel efficiency and fuel flexibility, yet reduce the market incentive to develop and introduce new fuel-saving technologies.

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Energy Conservation and Transportation Demand. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

01416413

pp 56-68

1987

Transportation Research Record

0309046629

Print

Figures (10) ; References (24) ; Tables (7)

Consumption; Demand; Energy consumption; Fuel conservation; Fuels; Impact studies; Imports; Oil pools; Petroleum; Prices; Production; Supply; Transportation

Fuel prices; Petroleum reserves; Supply and demand

Energy; Society; Transportation (General); Vehicles and Equipment; I96: Vehicle Operating Costs

TRIS, TRB

Sep 30 1988 12:00AM

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