00475226

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...trr/1987/1108/1108-003.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...cker&publication_year=1987

In spite of the seemingly strong support for research in on-time performance of bus service, previous research has largely been informal with little statistical basis. In this paper, it is concluded that the distribution of late and early time intervals between actual and scheduled time arrivals for buses at bus stops on a particular route conforms to the exponential probability distribution. The probability equation of the distribution can be used to compute the probability or percentage of buses arriving at a given bus stop that will be more than x minutes early or more than y minutes late. These probabilities may be interpreted as failure rates. The probability equation allows flexibility in interpreting results and setting standards for on-time performance.

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Bus Transit Systems. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

01418062

pp 22-26

1987

Transportation Research Record

0309044561

Print

Figures (1) ; References (2) ; Tables (2)

Bus transit; Distributions (Statistics); Exponential distributions; Performance evaluations; Scheduling

Administration and Management; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB

Nov 30 1987 12:00AM

• ASSAULTS ON BUS STAFF IN GREAT BRITAIN
• DEVELOPMENT OF A BUS OPERATING COST ALLOCATION MODEL COMPATIBLE WITH UMTA URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING SYSTEM MODELS
• EFFECTS OF FARE AND OTHER FACTORS ON EXPRESS BUS RIDERSHIP IN A MEDIUM-SIZED URBAN AREA
• ESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL COST SAVINGS OF TRANSIT SERVICE CONTRACTING
• EXTENSIONS OF STOCHASTIC MULTIPATH TRIP ASSIGNMENT TO TRANSIT NETWORKS
• OVERSEAS APPLICATIONS OF MICROCOMPUTERS ON A TRANSPORTATION PLANNING AND ENGINEERING DESIGN PROJECT
• SHORT TURNING ON TRANSIT ROUTES
• URBAN TRANSIT PROFITABILITY BY ROUTE AND TIME OF DAY